All matches

Concepcion — Palestino, Primera División

Chile, Primera División

Concepcion
1.9DLWDW
—
Palestino
2.3LWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
44%23%33%
Concepcion44%Draw23%Palestino33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Concepcion44%2.27—
XDraw23%4.38—
2Palestino33%3.01—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.20

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricConcepcionPalestinoCombined
Goals scored0.500.831.33
Conceded0.501.001.50
Corners8.811.09.9
Cards2.01.83.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

ConcepcionPalestino

CD Concepción 44%, CD Palestino 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.

CD Concepción 44%Draw 23%CD Palestino 33%
1st half
38 · 38 · 24
2nd half
30 · 39 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Concepcion

  • awayColo-Colo1:1
  • homeAudax Italiano0:1
  • awayNublense1:0
  • homeCoquimbo Unido1:1
  • awayCobresal2:0

Palestino

  • homeUniversidad Catolica2:3
  • homeUniversidad de Concepcion2:1
  • awayCobresal0:2
  • awayO'Higgins1:0
  • homeHuachipato5:1

Head to head

  • 04/24/26Primera División1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Universidad Catolica23133750:3342
3Universidad de Chile23126535:1942
4Palestino23113936:3336
5Deportes Limache231031043:3533
6Everton Vina del Mar2396834:2633
7Nublense2388728:3132
8Concepcion23941025:2631
9La Serena2379734:3830
10Coquimbo Unido2285931:3129

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.