All matches

Huachipato vs Concepcion prediction

Chile, Primera División

VARStats prediction for 22 November: Huachipato 44%, Concepcion 33%, draw 23%. Below — goals, corners, cards, team form and the referee.

1.8DDWWD
  
1.9LDDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
44%23%33%
Huachipato44%Draw23%Concepcion33%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Huachipato44%2.26—
XDraw23%4.36—
2Concepcion33%3.06—

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Quick predictions

The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.18

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals prediction

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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4185 matches

Corners prediction

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4170 matches

Cards prediction

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4155 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

HuachipatoConcepcion

CD Huachipato 44%, CD Concepción 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.

CD Huachipato 44%Draw 23%CD Concepción 33%
1st half
26 · 41 · 32
2nd half
43 · 33 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHuachipatoConcepcionCombined
Goals scored1.000.801.80
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Insights

What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.

Huachipato
  • 4 clean sheets in the last 50:0, 1:1, 2:0, 2:0, 0:0
  • Unbeaten in 5 matches0:0, 1:1, 2:0, 2:0, 0:0
  • 2 goals or fewer in 5 of the last 5
Concepcion
  • 15th of 16 for corners — 9.0 per match16 teams in the league
  • Led at half-time in 6 of 10 matches
  • One win in the last 5 matches1:3, 1:1, 1:1, 0:1, 1:0

Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.

Form and context

Huachipato

  • homeLa Serena0:0
  • awayAudax Italiano1:1
  • homeO'Higgins2:0
  • awayUniversidad de Concepcion2:0
  • homeColo-Colo0:0

Concepcion

  • awayLa Serena1:3
  • homeUnion La Calera1:1
  • awayColo-Colo1:1
  • homeAudax Italiano0:1
  • awayNublense1:0

Head to head

  • 05/24/26Primera División0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Nublense2698930:3935
9La Serena26810839:4234
10Huachipato25961034:4033
11Concepcion25951127:3032
12O'Higgins26941330:3931
13Audax Italiano2579928:3330

Full breakdown

Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.