All matches

CD Palestino — CSD Colo-Colo, Primera División

Chile, Primera División

CD Palestino
2.3LWLWW
—
CSD Colo-Colo
3.2DDWWD
Outcome probability
332244
CD Palestino33%Draw22%CSD Colo-Colo44%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CD Palestino33%2.99—
XDraw22%4.52—
2CSD Colo-Colo44%2.25—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.01

No50%

ours 1.99

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCD PalestinoCSD Colo-ColoCombined
Goals scored1.671.673.34
Conceded1.170.832.00
Corners10.011.210.6
Cards1.81.63.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CD PalestinoCSD Colo-Colo
    4Table position1
    66.00%Possession61.60%
    13Days of rest13.3
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, CSD Colo-Colo still look stronger — an away win is rated at 44%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CD Palestino

  • homeCD Universidad Católica2:3
  • homeCD Universidad de Concepción2:1
  • awayCD Cobresal0:2
  • awayCD O'Higgins1:0
  • homeCD Huachipato5:1

CSD Colo-Colo

  • homeCD Concepción1:1
  • awayCD Huachipato0:0
  • homeAudax Italiano La Florida SADP5:1
  • awayCFP Universidad de Chile2:1
  • homeCD O'Higgins2:2

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Primera División1:0
  • 08/22/25Primera División0:0
  • 03/27/25Primera División1:1
  • 10/20/24Primera División1:4
  • 05/19/24Primera División0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1CSD Colo-Colo23173348:2254
2CD Universidad Católica23133750:3342
3CFP Universidad de Chile23126535:1942
4CD Palestino23113936:3336
5Club Deportes Limache231031043:3533
6Everton de Viña del Mar2396834:2633

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.