All matches

CD La Serena — CD Concepción, Primera División

Chile, Primera División

CD La Serena
1.6LWWDW
—
CD Concepción
1.9DLWDW
Outcome probability
402338
CD La Serena40%Draw23%CD Concepción38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CD La Serena40%2.52—
XDraw23%4.40—
2CD Concepción38%2.67—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.18

No54%

ours 1.85

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCD La SerenaCD ConcepciónCombined
Goals scored1.330.832.16
Conceded1.170.501.67
Corners10.68.49.5
Cards2.62.04.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CD La SerenaCD Concepción
    9Table position8
    47.00%Possession48.40%
    13.4Days of rest13.1
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    CD La Serena look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CD La Serena

  • homeCFP Universidad de Chile0:3
  • homeDeportivo Ñublense SADP2:1
  • awayCD Unión La Calera1:0
  • homeCD Cobresal3:3
  • awayCD Universidad de Concepción2:0

CD Concepción

  • awayCSD Colo-Colo1:1
  • homeAudax Italiano La Florida SADP0:1
  • awayDeportivo Ñublense SADP1:0
  • homeCD Coquimbo Unido1:1
  • awayCD Cobresal2:0

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Primera División3:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Everton de Viña del Mar2396834:2633
7Deportivo Ñublense SADP2388728:3132
8CD Concepción23941025:2631
9CD La Serena2379734:3830
10CD Coquimbo Unido2285931:3129
11Audax Italiano La Florida SADP2377926:3128

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.