Both teams to score
Yes65%
ours 1.55
No35%
ours 2.83
All matches
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PSV II — NAC Breda, Eerste Divisie
Netherlands, Eerste Divisie
PSV II
1.3LDLWD
NAC Breda
1.1DWWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
35%22%42%
PSV II35%Draw22%NAC Breda42%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1PSV II2.84—
XDraw4.49—
2NAC Breda2.35—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPSV IINAC BredaCombined
Goals scored0.501.331.83
Conceded1.170.832.00
Corners9.711.010.3
Cards0.71.32.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PSV IINAC Breda
PSV Eindhoven II 35%, NAC Breda 42%. The safest is “No draw” at 78%.
PSV Eindhoven II 35%Draw 22%NAC Breda 42%
1st half
33 · 33 · 34
2nd half
27 · 33 · 40
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 2.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
PSV II
- awayVitesse1:3
- homeAZ II1:1
- awayHelmond Sport1:3
- homeDen Bosch3:1
- homeAjax II1:1
NAC Breda
- awayVitesse2:2
- homeEindhoven4:2
- awayDe Graafschap2:1
- homeUtrecht II2:3
- awayRKC Waalwijk2:4
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
RKC Waalwijk935119:1214
RKC Waalwijk935119:12148
Vitesse942315:1314
Vitesse942315:13149NAC Breda942319:1914
NAC Breda942319:191410
AZ II941422:1713
AZ II941422:171311
Volendam940520:1712
Volendam940520:171212PSV II933314:1612
PSV II933314:161213
Eindhoven932415:1911
Eindhoven932415:191114
Helmond Sport923415:169
Helmond Sport923415:169Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.