SV Roda JC — PSV Eindhoven II, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 9 at 06:00 PM

SV Roda JC

1.9WDWDD

—

PSV Eindhoven II

1.3LDLWD

Outcome probability

532125

SV Roda JC53%Draw21%PSV Eindhoven II25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SV Roda JC53%1.87—

XDraw21%4.67—

2PSV Eindhoven II25%3.97—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.28

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSV Roda JCPSV Eindhoven IICombined

Goals scored1.001.502.50

Conceded0.501.832.33

Corners8.210.09.1

Cards1.20.82.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SV Roda JCPSV Eindhoven II
2Matches in 14 days0
5.2Days of rest14
5Table position12
46.80%Possession53.20%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour SV Roda JC: a home win is rated at 53%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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