NAC Breda — Heracles Almelo, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 23 at 06:00 PM

NAC Breda

1.1WWLLD

—

Heracles Almelo

1.1WLWWW

Outcome probability

342244

NAC Breda34%Draw22%Heracles Almelo44%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1NAC Breda34%2.96—

XDraw22%4.49—

2Heracles Almelo44%2.28—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes67%

ours 1.50

No33%

ours 3.01

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNAC BredaHeracles AlmeloCombined

Goals scored1.330.832.16

Conceded1.000.501.50

Corners11.010.710.8

Cards1.31.02.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
NAC BredaHeracles Almelo
10Table position1
7Days of rest5.1
56.30%Possession59.30%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Heracles Almelo still look stronger — an away win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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