NAC Breda — MVV, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 9 at 06:00 PM

NAC Breda

1.1WWLLD

—

MVV

1.2WLLDW

Outcome probability

602020

NAC Breda60%Draw20%MVV20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1NAC Breda60%1.66—

XDraw20%5.12—

2MVV20%4.93—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84

No46%

ours 2.20

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNAC BredaMVVCombined

Goals scored2.001.003.00

Conceded2.002.004.00

Corners9.88.89.3

Cards2.01.23.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
NAC BredaMVV
10Table position3
55.00%Possession53.20%
6.1Days of rest6.1
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour NAC Breda: a home win is rated at 60%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans