All matches

PSV Eindhoven II — FC Dordrecht, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste Divisie

PSV Eindhoven II
1.3LDLWD
—
FC Dordrecht
1.6WLLLL
Outcome probability
472231
PSV Eindhoven II47%Draw22%FC Dordrecht31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1PSV Eindhoven II47%2.12—
XDraw22%4.56—
2FC Dordrecht31%3.22—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes68%

ours 1.48

No32%

ours 3.10

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPSV Eindhoven IIFC DordrechtCombined
Goals scored1.171.172.34
Conceded1.502.173.67
Corners10.67.38.9
Cards0.81.52.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    PSV Eindhoven IIFC Dordrecht
    12Table position18
    53.60%Possession54.00%
    10Days of rest10
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour PSV Eindhoven II: a home win is rated at 47%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

PSV Eindhoven II

  • awaySBV Vitesse1:3
  • homeAlkmaar Zaanstreek II1:1
  • awayHelmond Sport1:3
  • homeFC Den Bosch3:1
  • homeAFC Ajax II1:1

FC Dordrecht

  • homeAlmere City FC3:2
  • awayFC Oss0:3
  • awayFC Eindhoven1:2
  • homeAlkmaar Zaanstreek II3:6
  • awayFC Volendam1:6

Head to head

  • 02/27/26Eerste Divisie1:1
  • 08/23/25Eerste Divisie2:1
  • 02/24/25Eerste Divisie1:2
  • 10/04/24Eerste Divisie0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10NAC Breda841317:1713
11FC Volendam840420:1612
12PSV Eindhoven II933314:1612
13FC Eindhoven831413:1710
14Helmond Sport822413:148
15AFC Ajax II922513:228
16FC Den Bosch821512:177
17FC Utrecht II921615:217
18FC Dordrecht821512:237
19BV De Graafschap82159:207
20FC Oss82068:136

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.