Helmond Sport — NAC Breda, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 16 at 06:00 PM

Helmond Sport

1.1LLWWL

—

NAC Breda

1.1WWLLD

Outcome probability

312246

Helmond Sport31%Draw22%NAC Breda46%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Helmond Sport31%3.19—

XDraw22%4.46—

2NAC Breda46%2.16—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHelmond SportNAC BredaCombined

Goals scored1.331.673.00

Conceded1.171.672.84

Corners8.310.09.1

Cards3.01.54.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Helmond SportNAC Breda
14Table position10
49.30%Possession53.80%
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, NAC Breda still look stronger — an away win is rated at 46%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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