Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.95
No49%
ours 2.06
All matches
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Hajduk Split — Gorica, Prva HNL
Croatia, Prva HNL
Hajduk Split
3.1LWWWW
Gorica
1.2WDLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
71%21%
Hajduk Split71%Draw21%Gorica9%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Hajduk Split1.41—
XDraw4.87—
2Gorica11.44—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricHajduk SplitGoricaCombined
Goals scored0.000.500.50
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners4.06.05.0
Cards3.02.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Hajduk SplitGorica
HNK Hajduk Split 71%, HNK Gorica 9%. The safest is “HNK Hajduk Split or draw” at 91%.
HNK Hajduk Split 71%Draw 21%HNK Gorica 9%
1st half
48 · 36 · 16
2nd half
50 · 35 · 15
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Match result: Home
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Hajduk Split
- awayRijeka0:3
- homeSlaven Belupo Koprivnica1:0
- awayRudes4:0
- homeLokomotiva Zagreb2:0
- awayRakow3:2
Gorica
- awayIstra1:0
- homeVarazdin2:2
- awayDinamo Zagreb0:1
- homeRijeka0:0
- awaySlaven Belupo Koprivnica0:2
Head to head
- 08/16/26Prva HNL2:1
- 04/12/26Prva HNL1:0
- 01/31/26Prva HNL0:1
- 10/24/25Prva HNL3:1
- 08/10/25Prva HNL2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Dinamo Zagreb751117:916
Dinamo Zagreb751117:9162Hajduk Split851216:816
Hajduk Split851216:8163
Osijek851217:1116
Osijek851217:11164
Varazdin843113:715
Varazdin843113:7155
Rijeka742113:714
Rijeka742113:7146
Istra823314:139
Istra823314:1397
Lokomotiva Zagreb821511:167
Lokomotiva Zagreb821511:1678
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica82157:167
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica82157:1679Gorica81255:125
Gorica81255:12510
Rudes811610:244
Rudes811610:244Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.