NK Osijek — HNK Gorica, Prva HNL

Croatia, Prva HNLOctober 17 at 04:00 PM

NK Osijek

1.6DWLWL

—

HNK Gorica

1.2WDLDL

Outcome probability

582617

NK Osijek58%Draw26%HNK Gorica17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1NK Osijek58%1.73—

XDraw26%3.90—

2HNK Gorica17%6.06—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.33

No57%

ours 1.75

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNK OsijekHNK GoricaCombined

Goals scored1.330.501.83

Conceded1.670.832.50

Corners7.27.47.3

Cards2.01.43.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
NK OsijekHNK Gorica
3Table position9
51.40%Possession42.40%
7Days of rest8
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
NK Osijek look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 58%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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