All matches

HNK Gorica — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, Prva HNL

Croatia, Prva HNL

HNK Gorica
1.2WDLDL
—
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.5LDLLL
Outcome probability
403129
HNK Gorica40%Draw31%NK Lokomotiva Zagreb29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1HNK Gorica40%2.48—
XDraw31%3.27—
2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb29%3.44—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.11

No53%

ours 1.90

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHNK GoricaNK Lokomotiva ZagrebCombined
Goals scored0.500.671.17
Conceded0.501.331.83
Corners7.010.58.8
Cards1.53.04.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    HNK GoricaNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
    1Matches in 14 days2
    9Table position7
    38.80%Possession42.30%
    6.3Days of rest6.5
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour HNK Gorica: a home win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

HNK Gorica

  • awayNK Istra 19611:0
  • homeNK Varaždin2:2
  • awayGNK Dinamo Zagreb0:1
  • homeHNK Rijeka0:0
  • awayNK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica0:2

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • awayGNK Dinamo Zagreb2:3
  • homeHNK Rijeka1:1
  • awayNK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica1:2
  • awayHNK Hajduk Split0:2
  • awayNK Rudeš1:4

Head to head

  • 08/08/26Prva HNL1:3
  • 04/17/26Prva HNL0:2
  • 02/06/26Prva HNL0:3
  • 11/03/25Prva HNL4:1
  • 08/16/25Prva HNL3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5HNK Rijeka742113:714
6NK Istra 1961823314:139
7NK Lokomotiva Zagreb821511:167
8NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica82157:167
9HNK Gorica81255:125
10NK Rudeš811610:244

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.