All matches

HNK Gorica — NK Rudeš, Prva HNL

Croatia, Prva HNL

HNK Gorica
1.2WDLDL
—
NK Rudeš
1.6DLLLW
Outcome probability
423028
HNK Gorica42%Draw30%NK Rudeš28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1HNK Gorica42%2.36—
XDraw30%3.36—
2NK Rudeš28%3.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91

No48%

ours 2.10

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHNK GoricaNK RudešCombined
Goals scored0.671.332.00
Conceded1.172.673.84
Corners7.310.89.1
Cards1.32.53.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    HNK GoricaNK Rudeš
    9Table position10
    41.80%Possession42.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    HNK Gorica look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

HNK Gorica

  • awayNK Istra 19611:0
  • homeNK Varaždin2:2
  • awayGNK Dinamo Zagreb0:1
  • homeHNK Rijeka0:0
  • awayNK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica0:2

NK Rudeš

  • homeNK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica2:2
  • awayNK Istra 19612:3
  • homeHNK Hajduk Split0:4
  • awayNK Varaždin0:2
  • homeNK Lokomotiva Zagreb4:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7NK Lokomotiva Zagreb821511:167
8NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica82157:167
9HNK Gorica81255:125
10NK Rudeš811610:244

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.