All matches

Istra vs Gorica: result 0:1

Croatia, Prva HNLMatch finished

Final score 0:1. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Istra 49%, draw 30%, Gorica 21%.

1.8WDLWL
0:1HT 0:0
1.3LDDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
49%30%21%
IstraPrice 1.8249%DrawPrice 3.6030%GoricaPrice 3.9621%
Line-upsIstra4-2-3-1—Gorica4-2-3-1

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Istra4-2-3-1Gorica4-2-3-1

Istra 4-2-3-1

Coach: Javi Cabello

Starting XI

  • 1GKCroatiaFranko Kolić
  • 44DFSloveniaRene Hrvatin
  • 4DFRaul Kumar
  • 16DFFinlandSamuli Miettinen
  • 13DFCroatiaNiko Šepić
  • 88MFMaliDaouda Doumbia
  • 8MFCroatiaAntonio Maurić
  • 22MFDenmarkEmil Frederiksen
  • 20MFCroatiaDukan Ahmeti
  • 30MFNik Škafar Žužić
  • 9FWBrazilIsaac

Substitutes

  • 40GKCroatiaJan Paus-Kunšt
  • 3DFTunisiaMohamed Nasraoui
  • 66DFMutari Momoh
  • 97DFBosnia and HerzegovinaAdvan Kadušić
  • 25MFDemirel Hodžić
  • 23MFStipe Ukich
  • 25MFArgentinaGustavo Albarracín
  • 34MFMatija Kablar
  • 11FWCroatiaSilvio Goričan
  • 27FWCroatiaDominik Celija
  • 39FWToni Brajković

Gorica 4-2-3-1

Coach: Mario Carevic

Starting XI

  • 1GKCroatiaRenato Josipović
  • 2DFCroatiaFilip Braut
  • 32DFCroatiaJakov Filipović
  • 15DFSerbiaDušan Stevanović
  • 5DFPortugalGonçalo Costa
  • 66MFCroatiaJuraj Frigan
  • 6MFFranceTom Lacoux
  • 20FWCroatiaLuka Vrzić
  • 10FWCroatiaFran Brodić
  • 25MFCroatiaBruno Bogojević
  • 9FWCroatiaPatrik Mijić

Substitutes

  • 30GKCroatiaDarijan Žarkov
  • 71GKCroatiaDavor Matijaš
  • 34DFCroatiaIvan Cvijanović
  • 45DFAustriaStefan Perić
  • 4MFSwedenKevin Čustović
  • 7MFMontenegroOgnjen Bakić
  • 8MFCroatiaJakov Pranjić
  • 24MFCroatiaDomagoj Pavičić
  • 26MFFranceKeenan Carole
  • 67MFTomislav Prgomet
  • 18FWCroatiaBartol Kardum
  • 50FWCroatiaAnte Erceg

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

2.42xG1.49
51Possession, %49
18Shots13
11Shots on target4
3Corners3
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
7Fouls10
1Offsides2

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

2 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 79 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    Istra49%

    Actual: Gorica — we had 21%

  • Total goals Landed
    Under 2.561%
  • Both teams to score Landed
    No56%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Istra49%52%2.021.82-3.0
XDraw30%25%3.353.60+4.8
2Gorica21%23%4.823.96-1.8

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Istra

  • awaySlaven Belupo Koprivnica2:0
  • homeHajduk Split2:2
  • awayLokomotiva Zagreb0:2
  • awayOsijek3:1
  • homeGorica0:1

Gorica

  • awayHajduk Split0:5
  • homeLokomotiva Zagreb0:0
  • awayOsijek1:1
  • homeRudes1:2
  • awayIstra1:0

Head to head

  • 09/19/26Prva HNL0:1
  • 04/27/26Prva HNL0:1
  • 02/21/26Prva HNL0:2
  • 11/23/25Prva HNL0:1
  • 08/29/25Prva HNL1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Varazdin1254316:1119
5Rijeka1153318:1518
6Istra1244421:1816
8Rudes1241715:2713
9Lokomotiva Zagreb1232714:2011
10Gorica121477:207

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.