NK Istra 1961 — HNK Hajduk Split, Prva HNL

Croatia, Prva HNLOctober 24 at 12:00 AM

NK Istra 1961

1.7LWDDL

—

HNK Hajduk Split

3.1LWWWW

Outcome probability

242947

NK Istra 196124%Draw29%HNK Hajduk Split47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1NK Istra 196124%4.15—

XDraw29%3.44—

2HNK Hajduk Split47%2.14—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.02

No50%

ours 1.98

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNK Istra 1961HNK Hajduk SplitCombined

Goals scored0.830.171.00

Conceded0.830.501.33

Corners9.05.57.3

Cards2.03.05.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
NK Istra 1961HNK Hajduk Split
6.5Days of rest1.2
6Table position2
2Matches in 14 days4
44.50%Possession63.50%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, HNK Hajduk Split still look stronger — an away win is rated at 47%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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