All matches

HNK Hajduk Split — NK Varaždin, Prva HNL

Croatia, Prva HNL

HNK Hajduk Split
3.1LWWWW
—
NK Varaždin
2.3DDDWL
Outcome probability
552718
HNK Hajduk Split55%Draw27%NK Varaždin18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1HNK Hajduk Split55%1.82—
XDraw27%3.69—
2NK Varaždin18%5.58—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes41%

ours 2.47

No59%

ours 1.68

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHNK Hajduk SplitNK VaraždinCombined
Goals scored1.170.832.00
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners7.09.08.0
Cards1.81.43.1
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    HNK Hajduk SplitNK Varaždin
    2.8Days of rest7
    2Table position4
    2Matches in 14 days1
    64.50%Possession52.00%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    HNK Hajduk Split look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 55%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Most corners: Home

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

HNK Hajduk Split

  • awayHNK Rijeka0:3
  • homeNK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica1:0
  • awayNK Rudeš4:0
  • homeNK Lokomotiva Zagreb2:0
  • awayKS Raków Częstochowa3:2

NK Varaždin

  • homeNK Osijek0:0
  • awayHNK Gorica2:2
  • homeNK Istra 19610:0
  • homeNK Rudeš2:0
  • awayGNK Dinamo Zagreb1:3

Head to head

  • 08/02/26Prva HNL1:2
  • 05/03/26Prva HNL3:1
  • 02/28/26Prva HNL1:1
  • 11/29/25Prva HNL1:1
  • 09/13/25Prva HNL0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1GNK Dinamo Zagreb751117:916
2HNK Hajduk Split851216:816
3NK Osijek851217:1116
4NK Varaždin843113:715
5HNK Rijeka742113:714
6NK Istra 1961823314:139

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.