All matches

HNK Hajduk Split — GNK Dinamo Zagreb, Prva HNL

Croatia, Prva HNL

HNK Hajduk Split
3.1LWWWW
—
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
3.5WDLWD
Outcome probability
312940
HNK Hajduk Split31%Draw29%GNK Dinamo Zagreb40%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1HNK Hajduk Split31%3.21—
XDraw29%3.41—
2GNK Dinamo Zagreb40%2.53—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.63

No39%

ours 2.59

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHNK Hajduk SplitGNK Dinamo ZagrebCombined
Goals scored2.331.503.83
Conceded0.831.832.66
Corners6.59.27.8
Cards2.01.83.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    HNK Hajduk SplitGNK Dinamo Zagreb
    2Table position1
    57.50%Possession58.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, GNK Dinamo Zagreb still look stronger — an away win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

HNK Hajduk Split

  • awayHNK Rijeka0:3
  • homeNK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica1:0
  • awayNK Rudeš4:0
  • homeNK Lokomotiva Zagreb2:0
  • awayKS Raków Częstochowa3:2

GNK Dinamo Zagreb

  • homeNK Lokomotiva Zagreb3:2
  • awayHapoel Be'er Sheva FC0:0
  • awayNK Osijek2:4
  • homeHNK Gorica1:0
  • awayNK Istra 19612:2

Head to head

  • 05/09/26Prva HNL0:2
  • 03/08/26Prva HNL1:3
  • 12/06/25Prva HNL1:1
  • 09/20/25Prva HNL0:2
  • 05/03/25Prva HNL1:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1GNK Dinamo Zagreb751117:916
2HNK Hajduk Split851216:816
3NK Osijek851217:1116
4NK Varaždin843113:715

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.