All matches

FC Thun — HNK Hajduk Split, UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Thun
2.2WLLLD
—
HNK Hajduk Split
3.1LWWWW
Outcome probability
432632
FC Thun43%Draw26%HNK Hajduk Split32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Thun43%2.34—
XDraw26%3.88—
2HNK Hajduk Split32%3.17—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.71

No41%

ours 2.41

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC ThunHNK Hajduk SplitCombined
Goals scored1.000.831.83
Conceded1.500.502.00
Corners13.06.79.8
Cards2.82.04.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC ThunHNK Hajduk Split
    7Days of rest4.3
    2Matches in 14 days3
    51.80%Possession64.30%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Thun look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 43%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Thun

  • awayFC Vaduz2:1
  • homeServette FC2:4
  • homeGrasshopper Club Zürich0:1
  • awayFC Sion2:3
  • homeFC Lausanne Sport0:0

HNK Hajduk Split

  • awayHNK Rijeka0:3
  • homeNK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica1:0
  • awayNK Rudeš4:0
  • homeNK Lokomotiva Zagreb2:0
  • awayKS Raków Częstochowa3:2

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
16KS Raków Częstochowa632112:611
17SK Brann632113:911
18HNK Hajduk Split431014:610
19KF Shkendija631211:510
20FK Rīgas Futbola skola631210:710

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.