Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.71
No41%
ours 2.41
All matches
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Bayern Munich — Borussia Dortmund, Bundesliga
Germany, Bundesliga
Bayern Munich
4.7WWWDW
Borussia Dortmund
3.4WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
62%23%16%
Bayern Munich62%Draw23%Borussia Dortmund16%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Bayern Munich1.61—
XDraw4.44—
2Borussia Dortmund6.43—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBayern MunichBorussia DortmundCombined
Goals scored1.170.171.34
Conceded0.000.000.00
Corners11.08.09.5
Cards1.05.06.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Bayern MunichBorussia Dortmund
FC Bayern München 62%, BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund 16%. The safest is “FC Bayern München or draw” at 86%.
FC Bayern München 62%Draw 23%BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund 16%
1st half
45 · 35 · 20
2nd half
48 · 34 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Bayern Munich
- homeUnion Berlin7:0
- awayElversberg2:1
- homeBodo/Glimt5:0
- awaySchalke 040:0
- homeStuttgart5:1
Borussia Dortmund
- awayStuttgart1:0
- homePaderborn3:0
- homeVillarreal3:2
- awayHoffenheim3:2
- homeHamburger SV2:0
Head to head
- 02/28/26Bundesliga3:2
- 10/18/25Bundesliga2:1
- 04/12/25Bundesliga2:2
- 11/30/24Bundesliga1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Borussia Dortmund44009:212
Borussia Dortmund44009:2122Bayern Munich431014:210
Bayern Munich431014:2103
Freiburg431012:310
Freiburg431012:3104
Augsburg421111:67
Augsburg421111:67Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.