Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.74
No42%
ours 2.36
All matches
—
Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund, Bundesliga
Germany, Bundesliga
Union Berlin
1.5LLLDW
Borussia Dortmund
3.4WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
20%21%58%
Union Berlin20%Draw21%Borussia Dortmund58%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Union Berlin4.95—
XDraw4.69—
2Borussia Dortmund1.71—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricUnion BerlinBorussia DortmundCombined
Goals scored1.331.673.00
Conceded2.830.673.50
Corners10.411.811.1
Cards2.62.34.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
1. FC Union Berlin 20%, BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund 58%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
1. FC Union Berlin 20%Draw 21%BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund 58%
1st half
26 · 37 · 37
2nd half
27 · 38 · 35
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 4.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Union Berlin
- awayBayern Munich0:7
- homeSchalke 041:3
- awayBayer Leverkusen0:4
- homeEintracht Frankfurt3:3
- homeAugsburg4:0
Borussia Dortmund
- awayStuttgart1:0
- homePaderborn3:0
- homeVillarreal3:2
- awayHoffenheim3:2
- homeHamburger SV2:0
Head to head
- 01/24/26Bundesliga0:3
- 08/31/25Bundesliga0:3
- 02/22/25Bundesliga0:6
- 10/05/24Bundesliga2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Borussia Dortmund44009:212
Borussia Dortmund44009:2122
Bayern Munich431014:210
Bayern Munich431014:2103
Freiburg431012:310
Freiburg431012:3104
Augsburg421111:67
Augsburg421111:675
Bayer Leverkusen421110:57
Bayer Leverkusen421110:576
Mainz 05421110:67
Mainz 05421110:677
Elversberg42118:77
Elversberg42118:778
Werder Bremen42118:87
Werder Bremen42118:879
RB Leipzig42029:56
RB Leipzig42029:5610
Eintracht Frankfurt41219:105
Eintracht Frankfurt41219:10511
Schalke 0441213:45
Schalke 0441213:4512
Paderborn41123:54
Paderborn41123:5413
Koln41126:94
Koln41126:9414
Hoffenheim41037:103
Hoffenheim41037:10315
Stuttgart41036:93
Stuttgart41036:9316
Hamburger SV41032:133
Hamburger SV41032:13317Union Berlin40134:171
Union Berlin40134:17118
Borussia Monchengladbach40046:160
Borussia Monchengladbach40046:160Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.