All matches

FC Bayern München — Rasen Ballsport Leipzig, Bundesliga

Germany, Bundesliga

FC Bayern München
4.7WWWDW
—
Rasen Ballsport Leipzig
2.4LWLLW
Outcome probability
78
FC Bayern München78%Draw13%Rasen Ballsport Leipzig8%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Bayern München78%1.28—
XDraw13%7.42—
2Rasen Ballsport Leipzig8%12.30—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.70

No41%

ours 2.43

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Bayern MünchenRasen Ballsport LeipzigCombined
Goals scored2.331.173.50
Conceded0.171.501.67
Corners10.811.010.9
Cards0.81.82.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Bayern MünchenRasen Ballsport Leipzig
    2Table position9
    72.30%Possession58.30%
    3.9Days of rest3.9
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC Bayern München: a home win is rated at 78%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 3.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Bayern München

  • home1. FC Union Berlin7:0
  • awaySV 07 Elversberg2:1
  • homeFK Bodo - Glimt5:0
  • awayFC Schalke 040:0
  • homeVfB Stuttgart 18935:1

Rasen Ballsport Leipzig

  • awayBayer 04 Leverkusen0:2
  • homeHamburger SV5:0
  • awayCalcio Como1:4
  • awaySV Werder Bremen1:3
  • homeBorussia VfL Mönchengladbach3:0

Head to head

  • 01/17/26Bundesliga5:1
  • 08/22/25Bundesliga6:0
  • 05/03/25Bundesliga3:3
  • 12/20/24Bundesliga5:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund44009:212
2FC Bayern München431014:210
3SC Freiburg431012:310
4FC Augsburg421111:67
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:57
61. FSV Mainz 05421110:67
7SV 07 Elversberg42118:77
8SV Werder Bremen42118:87
9Rasen Ballsport Leipzig42029:56
10Eintracht Frankfurt41219:105
11FC Schalke 0441213:45

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.