Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.70
No41%
ours 2.44
All matches
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BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund — Eintracht Frankfurt, Bundesliga
Germany, Bundesliga
BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund
3.4WWWWWEintracht Frankfurt
2.1DWLDDOutcome probability
7117
BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund71%Draw17%Eintracht Frankfurt12%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund1.41—
XDraw5.74—
2Eintracht Frankfurt8.52—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBVB 09 Borussia DortmundEintracht FrankfurtCombined
Goals scored0.671.502.17
Conceded0.001.671.67
Corners9.09.39.1
Cards3.02.35.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
BVB 09 Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt1Table position104Days of rest7.93Matches in 14 days249.50%Possession49.50% - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund: a home win is rated at 71%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 4.5
72%
Form and context
BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund
- awayVfB Stuttgart 18931:0
- homeSC Paderborn 073:0
- homeVillarreal CF3:2
- awayTSG 1899 Hoffenheim3:2
- homeHamburger SV2:0
Eintracht Frankfurt
- homeSC Freiburg2:2
- away1. FSV Mainz 053:1
- homeFC Augsburg1:4
- away1. FC Union Berlin3:3
- homeVfB Stuttgart 18932:2
Head to head
- 05/08/26Bundesliga3:2
- 01/09/26Bundesliga3:3
- 01/17/25Bundesliga0:2
- 08/24/24Bundesliga2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund44009:212
BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund44009:2122
FC Bayern München431014:210
FC Bayern München431014:2103
SC Freiburg431012:310
SC Freiburg431012:3104
FC Augsburg421111:67
FC Augsburg421111:675
Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:57
Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:576
1. FSV Mainz 05421110:67
1. FSV Mainz 05421110:677
SV 07 Elversberg42118:77
SV 07 Elversberg42118:778
SV Werder Bremen42118:87
SV Werder Bremen42118:879
Rasen Ballsport Leipzig42029:56
Rasen Ballsport Leipzig42029:5610Eintracht Frankfurt41219:105
Eintracht Frankfurt41219:10511
FC Schalke 0441213:45
FC Schalke 0441213:4512
SC Paderborn 0741123:54
SC Paderborn 0741123:54