All matches

BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund — SV Werder Bremen, Bundesliga

Germany, Bundesliga

BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund
3.4WWWWW
—
SV Werder Bremen
1.6WDWLL
Outcome probability
7715
BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund77%Draw15%SV Werder Bremen8%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund77%1.30—
XDraw15%6.82—
2SV Werder Bremen8%11.88—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.13

No53%

ours 1.88

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBVB 09 Borussia DortmundSV Werder BremenCombined
Goals scored2.331.333.66
Conceded0.671.832.50
Corners10.09.59.8
Cards1.81.23.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    BVB 09 Borussia DortmundSV Werder Bremen
    1Table position8
    49.30%Possession45.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund: a home win is rated at 77%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund

  • awayVfB Stuttgart 18931:0
  • homeSC Paderborn 073:0
  • homeVillarreal CF3:2
  • awayTSG 1899 Hoffenheim3:2
  • homeHamburger SV2:0

SV Werder Bremen

  • homeFC Augsburg3:2
  • away1. FC Köln1:1
  • homeRasen Ballsport Leipzig3:1
  • awaySC Freiburg1:4
  • homeBVB 09 Borussia Dortmund0:2

Head to head

  • 05/16/26Bundesliga2:0
  • 01/13/26Bundesliga3:0
  • 01/25/25Bundesliga2:2
  • 08/31/24Bundesliga0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund44009:212
2FC Bayern München431014:210
3SC Freiburg431012:310
4FC Augsburg421111:67
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:57
61. FSV Mainz 05421110:67
7SV 07 Elversberg42118:77
8SV Werder Bremen42118:87
9Rasen Ballsport Leipzig42029:56
10Eintracht Frankfurt41219:105

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.