All matches

FC Augsburg — FC Bayern München, Bundesliga

Germany, Bundesliga

FC Augsburg
1.9LDWWL
—
FC Bayern München
4.7WWWDW
Outcome probability
80
FC Augsburg7%Draw13%FC Bayern München80%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Augsburg7%13.77—
XDraw13%7.98—
2FC Bayern München80%1.25—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.77

No43%

ours 2.30

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC AugsburgFC Bayern MünchenCombined
Goals scored2.334.006.33
Conceded1.830.502.33
Corners10.810.810.8
Cards1.30.82.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC AugsburgFC Bayern München
    4Table position2
    41.20%Possession69.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Bayern München travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 80%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Augsburg

  • awaySV Werder Bremen2:3
  • homeBayer 04 Leverkusen2:2
  • awayEintracht Frankfurt4:1
  • homeFC Schalke 043:0
  • away1. FC Union Berlin0:4

FC Bayern München

  • home1. FC Union Berlin7:0
  • awaySV 07 Elversberg2:1
  • homeFK Bodo - Glimt5:0
  • awayFC Schalke 040:0
  • homeVfB Stuttgart 18935:1

Head to head

  • 01/24/26Bundesliga2:1
  • 08/30/25Bundesliga2:3
  • 04/04/25Bundesliga1:3
  • 11/22/24Bundesliga0:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund44009:212
2FC Bayern München431014:210
3SC Freiburg431012:310
4FC Augsburg421111:67
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:57
61. FSV Mainz 05421110:67

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.