Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.71
No42%
ours 2.41
All matches
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Bayern Munich — Arsenal, UEFA Champions League
Europe, UEFA Champions League
Bayern Munich
4.7WWWDW
Arsenal
4.4LWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
40%26%34%
Bayern Munich40%Draw26%Arsenal34%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Bayern Munich2.48—
XDraw3.84—
2Arsenal2.97—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBayern MunichArsenalCombined
Goals scored2.330.502.83
Conceded0.170.500.67
Corners10.77.79.2
Cards0.31.31.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Bayern MunichArsenal
FC Bayern München 40%, Arsenal FC 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
FC Bayern München 40%Draw 26%Arsenal FC 34%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Bayern Munich
- homeUnion Berlin7:0
- awayElversberg2:1
- homeBodo/Glimt5:0
- awaySchalke 040:0
- homeStuttgart5:1
Arsenal
- awayBrighton0:3
- awaySunderland2:0
- awayNapoli1:0
- homeChelsea2:1
- awayAston Villa1:0
Head to head
- 11/26/25UEFA Champions League1:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
27
NEC Nijmegen41123:74
NEC Nijmegen41123:7428
PSG11006:13
PSG11006:1329Bayern Munich11005:03
Bayern Munich11005:0330
Barcelona11005:13
Barcelona11005:1331
Manchester United11004:03
Manchester United11004:0332
Como11004:13
Como11004:1333
Stuttgart11003:13
Stuttgart11003:1334
Sporting CP11003:13
Sporting CP11003:1335
Manchester City11002:03
Manchester City11002:0336
Real Betis11003:23
Real Betis11003:2337
Lens11003:23
Lens11003:2338
Aston Villa11003:23
Aston Villa11003:2339
Borussia Dortmund11003:23
Borussia Dortmund11003:2340
Liverpool11002:13
Liverpool11002:1341
Real Madrid11002:13
Real Madrid11002:1342Arsenal11001:03
Arsenal11001:0343
LASK31025:53
LASK31025:5344
Lech Poznan21015:53
Lech Poznan21015:53Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.