All matches

AC Oulu — Vaasan Palloseura, Veikkausliiga

Finland, Veikkausliiga

AC Oulu
1.3LLLDW
—
Vaasan Palloseura
1.7LLWLW
Outcome probability
352837
AC Oulu35%Draw28%Vaasan Palloseura37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AC Oulu35%2.84—
XDraw28%3.57—
2Vaasan Palloseura37%2.72—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.34

No57%

ours 1.75

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAC OuluVaasan PalloseuraCombined
Goals scored0.170.000.17
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners5.510.58.0
Cards2.04.06.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AC OuluVaasan Palloseura
    8Table position6
    52.00%Possession41.50%
    4.1Days of rest4.2
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Vaasan Palloseura still look stronger — an away win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AC Oulu

  • homeFC Inter Turku0:1
  • homeIF Gnistan1:2
  • awayVaasan Palloseura0:1
  • homeSeinäjoen Jalkapallokerho0:0
  • awayFF Jaro1:0

Vaasan Palloseura

  • homeKuopion Palloseura0:2
  • awayFC Inter Turku0:1
  • homeAC Oulu1:0
  • homeFC Lahti0:1
  • awayTampereen Ilves1:0

Head to head

  • 09/08/26Veikkausliiga0:1
  • 06/23/26Veikkausliiga1:5
  • 04/18/26Veikkausliiga1:0
  • 10/04/25Veikkausliiga2:0
  • 06/28/25Veikkausliiga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4IF Gnistan25118640:3241
5FC Lahti25106930:2436
6Vaasan Palloseura25106930:2536
7Tampereen Ilves251041142:3834
8AC Oulu251041126:2934
9Turun Palloseura2588928:2732
10Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho25591128:3524

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.