All matches

Kuopion Palloseura — Vaasan Palloseura, Veikkausliiga

Finland, Veikkausliiga

Kuopion Palloseura
3.1WDDLW
—
Vaasan Palloseura
1.7LLWLW
Outcome probability
6819
Kuopion Palloseura68%Draw19%Vaasan Palloseura13%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Kuopion Palloseura68%1.47—
XDraw19%5.27—
2Vaasan Palloseura13%7.75—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.35

No57%

ours 1.74

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKuopion PalloseuraVaasan PalloseuraCombined
Goals scored0.500.170.67
Conceded0.170.670.84
Corners12.010.011.0
Cards1.33.04.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Kuopion PalloseuraVaasan Palloseura
    1Table position6
    2.8Days of rest5.9
    3Matches in 14 days2
    56.30%Possession41.30%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Kuopion Palloseura: a home win is rated at 68%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Kuopion Palloseura

  • awayVaasan Palloseura2:0
  • homeHelsingin Jalkapalloklubi0:0
  • awayIF Gnistan1:1
  • awayFC Inter Turku0:1
  • homeShamrock Rovers FC1:0

Vaasan Palloseura

  • homeKuopion Palloseura0:2
  • awayFC Inter Turku0:1
  • homeAC Oulu1:0
  • homeFC Lahti0:1
  • awayTampereen Ilves1:0

Head to head

  • 09/19/26Veikkausliiga2:0
  • 07/25/26Veikkausliiga3:1
  • 06/13/26Veikkausliiga1:1
  • 07/19/25Veikkausliiga1:1
  • 05/25/25Veikkausliiga0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Kuopion Palloseura25139341:2448
2FC Inter Turku25139332:1848
3Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi25126739:2942
4IF Gnistan25118640:3241
5FC Lahti25106930:2436
6Vaasan Palloseura25106930:2536
7Tampereen Ilves251041142:3834
8AC Oulu251041126:2934

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.