IF Gnistan — AC Oulu, Veikkausliiga

Finland, VeikkausliigaOctober 24 at 02:00 PM

IF Gnistan

2.0DWDDW

—

AC Oulu

1.3LLLDW

Outcome probability

582219

IF Gnistan58%Draw22%AC Oulu19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1IF Gnistan58%1.71—

XDraw22%4.45—

2AC Oulu19%5.21—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82

No45%

ours 2.22

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIF GnistanAC OuluCombined

Goals scored0.670.170.84

Conceded0.500.671.17

Corners9.37.08.2

Cards2.01.73.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
IF GnistanAC Oulu
4Table position8
36.00%Possession54.70%
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
IF Gnistan look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 58%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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