FC Inter Turku — AC Oulu, Veikkausliiga

Finland, VeikkausliigaOctober 17 at 03:00 PM

FC Inter Turku

3.0WWLWL

—

AC Oulu

1.3LLLDW

Outcome probability

7118

FC Inter Turku71%Draw18%AC Oulu11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Inter Turku71%1.41—

XDraw18%5.58—

2AC Oulu11%9.08—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.83

No65%

ours 1.55

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Inter TurkuAC OuluCombined

Goals scored0.670.170.84

Conceded0.330.671.00

Corners5.87.56.6

Cards1.81.33.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Inter TurkuAC Oulu
2Table position8
6.1Days of rest5
57.30%Possession53.80%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Inter Turku: a home win is rated at 71%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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