All matches

AC Oulu — Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi, Veikkausliiga

Finland, Veikkausliiga

AC Oulu
1.3LLLDW
—
Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi
2.4DDWWL
Outcome probability
232553
AC Oulu23%Draw25%Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi53%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AC Oulu23%4.40—
XDraw25%4.07—
2Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi53%1.90—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93

No48%

ours 2.07

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAC OuluHelsingin JalkapalloklubiCombined
Goals scored0.331.171.50
Conceded0.671.001.67
Corners7.69.28.4
Cards1.60.82.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AC OuluHelsingin Jalkapalloklubi
    8Table position3
    52.00%Possession56.00%
    4Days of rest4
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 53%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AC Oulu

  • homeFC Inter Turku0:1
  • homeIF Gnistan1:2
  • awayVaasan Palloseura0:1
  • homeSeinäjoen Jalkapallokerho0:0
  • awayFF Jaro1:0

Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi

  • awayIF Gnistan1:1
  • awayKuopion Palloseura0:0
  • homeFC Inter Turku2:1
  • awayTampereen Ilves2:1
  • homeIF Gnistan2:3

Head to head

  • 08/09/26Veikkausliiga0:1
  • 04/11/26Veikkausliiga1:0
  • 07/20/25Veikkausliiga1:3
  • 06/14/25Veikkausliiga0:4
  • 07/27/24Veikkausliiga0:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Kuopion Palloseura25139341:2448
2FC Inter Turku25139332:1848
3Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi25126739:2942
4IF Gnistan25118640:3241
5FC Lahti25106930:2436
6Vaasan Palloseura25106930:2536
7Tampereen Ilves251041142:3834
8AC Oulu251041126:2934
9Turun Palloseura2588928:2732
10Seinäjoen Jalkapallokerho25591128:3524

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.