Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.97
No49%
ours 2.03
All matches
—
Zira — Qabala, Premyer Liqası
Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası
Zira
2.8LDLWW
Qabala
1.1LLWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
64%23%14%
Zira64%Draw23%Qabala14%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Zira1.57—
XDraw4.40—
2Qabala7.28—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricZiraQabalaCombined
Goals scored0.170.330.50
Conceded1.170.832.00
Corners7.09.78.3
Cards2.31.74.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ZiraQabala
Zira IK 64%, FK Qabala 14%. The safest is “Zira IK or draw” at 81%.
Zira IK 64%Draw 23%FK Qabala 14%
1st half
42 · 40 · 18
2nd half
38 · 41 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Most corners: Home
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Zira
- awayTuran-T0:1
- homeQarabag1:1
- awaySabah0:5
- homeNeftchi Baku1:0
- homeMil Mugan3:1
Qabala
- homeNeftchi Baku0:3
- awayKapaz0:1
- homeMil Mugan2:1
- homeInter Baki0:0
- homeSafa0:1
Head to head
- 05/03/26Premyer Liqası1:0
- 11/22/25Premyer Liqası1:0
- 08/25/25Premyer Liqası2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Qarabag54109:413
Qarabag54109:4134
Turan-T63216:411
Turan-T63216:4115Zira63127:810
Zira63127:8106
Inter Baki62318:69
Inter Baki62318:697
Kapaz52124:77
Kapaz52124:778
Mil Mugan61146:114
Mil Mugan61146:1149Qabala61142:74
Qabala61142:7410
Safa61052:113
Safa61052:11311
Sumqayit50234:82
Sumqayit50234:82Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.