Zira IK — FK Sumqayıt, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer LiqasıOctober 23 at 12:00 AM

Zira IK

2.8LDLWW

—

FK Sumqayıt

1.0DDLLL

Outcome probability

7019

Zira IK70%Draw19%FK Sumqayıt11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Zira IK70%1.43—

XDraw19%5.31—

2FK Sumqayıt11%9.04—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.23

No55%

ours 1.81

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricZira IKFK SumqayıtCombined

Goals scored0.330.500.83

Conceded1.170.832.00

Corners8.89.39.0

Cards2.32.85.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Zira IKFK Sumqayıt
5Table position11
48.80%Possession49.80%
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Zira IK look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 70%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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