All matches

FK Sumqayıt — FK Qabala, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası

FK Sumqayıt
1.0DDLLL
—
FK Qabala
1.1LLWDL
Outcome probability
403030
FK Sumqayıt40%Draw30%FK Qabala30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Sumqayıt40%2.50—
XDraw30%3.36—
2FK Qabala30%3.32—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.27

No56%

ours 1.79

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK SumqayıtFK QabalaCombined
Goals scored1.170.331.50
Conceded2.001.173.17
Corners8.38.08.2
Cards2.31.03.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK SumqayıtFK Qabala
    11Table position9
    51.20%Possession51.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Sumqayıt: a home win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Sumqayıt

  • awayFK Kapaz1:1
  • homeFC İnter Bakı1:1
  • awayTuran-T IK1:2
  • homeQarabağ Ağdam FK0:1
  • homeNeftçi PFC Bakı1:3

FK Qabala

  • homeNeftçi PFC Bakı0:3
  • awayFK Kapaz0:1
  • homeMil Muğan FK2:1
  • homeFC İnter Bakı0:0
  • homeFK Safa0:1

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Premyer Liqası1:0
  • 02/20/26Premyer Liqası0:0
  • 11/07/25Premyer Liqası2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7FK Kapaz52124:77
8Mil Muğan FK61146:114
9FK Qabala61142:74
10FK Safa61052:113
11FK Sumqayıt50234:82
12Araz FK60245:132

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.