Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.86
No46%
ours 2.16
All matches
Qabala — Qarabag, Premier League
Azerbaijan, Premier League
Qabala
1.2WLLLL
Qarabag
3.3DWWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
13%82%
Qabala5%Draw13%Qarabag82%
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Qabala22.03—
XDraw7.52—
2Qarabag1.22—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
This market opens with Premium.
Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with Premium.
72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 2904 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 2896 matches
Cards
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 2886 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
QabalaQarabag
FK Qabala 5%, Qarabağ Ağdam FK 82%. The safest is “Qarabağ Ağdam FK or draw” at 96%.
FK Qabala 5%Draw 13%Qarabağ Ağdam FK 82%
1st half
13 · 34 · 52
2nd half
9 · 28 · 64
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 4.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricQabalaQarabagCombined
Goals scored0.602.002.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other nine metrics — with Premium
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Qabala- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches13 goals conceded
- Fewest corners in the league in their matches — 7.4 per match12 teams in the league
- Relegation zone: 10th of 12
Qarabag- Unbeaten away in 4 matches2:0, 1:1, 1:0, 1:0, 0:1
- Most corners in the league in their matches — 11.0 per match12 teams in the league
- Unbeaten in 6 matches3:3, 2:0, 1:0, 1:1, 3:2
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Qabala
- awayAraz2:1
- homeSabah0:4
- awaySumqayit1:4
- homeNeftchi Baku0:3
- awayKapaz0:1
Qarabag
- homeNeftchi Baku3:3
- awayMil Mugan2:0
- homeSafa1:0
- awayZira1:1
- homeAraz3:2
Head to head
- 05/09/26Premier League1:1
- 12/21/25Premier League1:2
- 09/26/25Premier League0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Sabah761018:119
Sabah761018:1192
Neftchi Baku953122:918
Neftchi Baku953122:9183
Qarabag752014:717
Qarabag752014:7174
Turan-T94328:615
Turan-T94328:6155
Zira943212:1215
Zira943212:12156
Kapaz84229:914
Kapaz84229:9147
Shamakhi834112:913
Shamakhi834112:9138
Sumqayit822412:138
Sumqayit822412:1389
Mil Mugan82157:137
Mil Mugan82157:13710
Qabala92165:167
Qabala92165:16711
Safa91085:173
Safa91085:17312
Araz90277:192
Araz90277:192Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.