Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.87
No47%
ours 2.15
All matches
Araz — Zira, Premier League
Azerbaijan, Premier League
Araz
1.4LLLLD
Zira
2.5WDDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
18%24%57%
Araz18%Draw24%Zira57%
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Araz5.43—
XDraw4.11—
2Zira1.75—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
This market opens with Premium.
Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with Premium.
72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 2904 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 2896 matches
Cards
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 2886 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ArazZira
Araz FK 18%, Zira IK 57%. The safest is “Zira IK or draw” at 82%.
Araz FK 18%Draw 24%Zira IK 57%
1st half
31 · 43 · 25
2nd half
18 · 41 · 41
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricArazZiraCombined
Goals scored1.001.202.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other nine metrics — with Premium
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Araz- Winless in 9 matches1:2, 1:2, 0:2, 1:2, 2:2
- Winless at home in 5 matches1:2, 0:2, 2:2, 0:1, 0:0
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches10 goals conceded
Zira- Winless away in 4 matches1:1, 0:1, 0:5, 0:1, 3:0
- Won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings2:3, 1:0, 1:1, 1:0, 1:0
- One win in the last 5 matches3:2, 1:1, 1:1, 0:1, 1:1
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Araz
- homeQabala1:2
- awaySumqayit1:2
- homeKapaz0:2
- awayShamakhi1:2
- homeTuran-T2:2
Zira
- homeSumqayit3:2
- awayKapaz1:1
- homeShamakhi1:1
- awayTuran-T0:1
- homeQarabag1:1
Head to head
- 05/23/26Premier League3:2
- 02/27/26Premier League0:1
- 08/19/25Premier League1:1
- 05/25/25Premier League0:1
- 01/18/25Premier League0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Neftchi Baku852121:817
Neftchi Baku852121:8173
Qarabag752014:717
Qarabag752014:7174
Zira943212:1215
Zira943212:12155
Turan-T84227:514
Turan-T84227:5146
Shamakhi834112:913
Shamakhi834112:9137
Kapaz73227:811
Kapaz73227:8118
Sumqayit822412:138
Sumqayit822412:1389
Mil Mugan82157:137
Mil Mugan82157:13710
Qabala92165:167
Qabala92165:16711
Safa81074:153
Safa81074:15312
Araz90277:192
Araz90277:192Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.