All matches

FK Kapaz — Zira IK, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası

FK Kapaz
0.9DWLWL
—
Zira IK
2.8LDLWW
Outcome probability
1971
FK Kapaz10%Draw19%Zira IK71%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Kapaz10%9.88—
XDraw19%5.31—
2Zira IK71%1.41—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes36%

ours 2.79

No64%

ours 1.56

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK KapazZira IKCombined
Goals scored0.670.831.50
Conceded1.171.332.50
Corners6.88.27.5
Cards3.02.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK KapazZira IK
    7Table position5
    6.5Days of rest5.5
    49.00%Possession52.00%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Zira IK travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 71%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Match result: Away

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Kapaz

  • homeFK Sumqayıt1:1
  • homeFK Qabala1:0
  • homeFC İnter Bakı1:4
  • homeTuran-T IK1:0
  • awaySabah FK0:2

Zira IK

  • awayTuran-T IK0:1
  • homeQarabağ Ağdam FK1:1
  • awaySabah FK0:5
  • homeNeftçi PFC Bakı1:0
  • homeMil Muğan FK3:1

Head to head

  • 03/09/26Premyer Liqası2:2
  • 11/28/25Premyer Liqası0:2
  • 08/30/25Premyer Liqası0:5
  • 04/26/25Premyer Liqası0:1
  • 02/24/25Premyer Liqası0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Qarabağ Ağdam FK54109:413
4Turan-T IK63216:411
5Zira IK63127:810
6FC İnter Bakı62318:69
7FK Kapaz52124:77
8Mil Muğan FK61146:114
9FK Qabala61142:74

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.