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Wrexham vs Southampton: result 2:1

England, ChampionshipMatch finished

Final score 2:1. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Southampton 48%, Wrexham 29%, draw 23%.

Wrexham
1.9LLWLD
2:1HT 1:0
Southampton
2.9WWDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
29%23%48%
WrexhamPrice 2.7129%DrawPrice 3.4523%SouthamptonPrice 2.4048%
Line-upsWrexham3-4-2-1—Southampton4-2-3-1

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Wrexham3-4-2-1Southampton4-2-3-1

Wrexham3-4-2-1

Coach: P. Parkinson

Starting XI

  • 22GKEnglandA. Patterson
  • 26DFEnglandZ. Vyner
  • 5DFScotlandD. Hyam
  • 2DFEnglandC. Doyle
  • 12MFBurkina FasoI. Kaboré
  • 18MFEnglandB. Sheaf
  • 8MFEnglandB. Whiteman
  • 3MFGabonJ. Ekomié
  • 10FWEnglandJ. Windass
  • 17FWEnglandC. O'Hare
  • 19FWWalesK. Moore

Substitutes

  • 6DFEnglandJ. Worrall
  • 21GKWalesD. Ward
  • 28FWEnglandS. Smith
  • 27MFEnglandL. O'Brien
  • 47MFEnglandR. Longman
  • 37MFEnglandM. James
  • 34DFEnglandA. James
  • 15MFEnglandG. Dobson
  • 11FWEnglandB. Cadamarteri

Southampton4-2-3-1

Coach: Tonda Eckert

Starting XI

  • 1GKIsraelDaniel Peretz
  • 14DFEnglandJ. Bree
  • 15DFEnglandN. Wood-Gordon
  • 13DFGermanyK. Schlotterbeck
  • 3DFRepublic of IrelandR. Manning
  • 4MFEnglandF. Downes
  • 30MFEnglandJ. Ward-Prowse
  • 27MFJapanK. Matsuki
  • 10MFRepublic of IrelandF. Azaz
  • 7MFBrazilLéo Scienza
  • 9FWCanadaC. Larin

Substitutes

  • 34DFBrazilWelington
  • 5DFEnglandJ. Stephens
  • 28FWEnglandD. Mubama
  • 25GKEnglandG. Long
  • 18MFEnglandT. Fellows
  • 23MFEnglandS. Edozie
  • 11FWEnglandL. Dobbin
  • 26MFEnglandCameron Bragg
  • 6DFEnglandZ. Abbott

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.01xG2.04
34Possession, %66
8Shots20
4Shots on target7
2Corners3
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
8Fouls7
0Offsides2

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

2 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 70 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    Southampton48%

    Actual: Wrexham — we had 29%

  • Total goals Landed
    Over 2.567%
  • Both teams to score Landed
    Yes67%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Wrexham29%34%3.472.71-5.5
XDraw23%27%4.263.45-3.0
2Southampton48%39%2.102.40+8.6

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Wrexham

  • awaySheffield United0:1
  • awayBlackburn Rovers0:2
  • homePreston4:1
  • homeWest Bromwich1:2
  • awayDerby County1:1

Southampton

  • homeQPR4:1
  • awayWest Ham3:2
  • homeBolton Wanderers0:0
  • awayNorwich City1:0
  • homePortsmouth1:0

Head to head

  • 09/19/26Championship2:1
  • 04/07/26Championship1:5
  • 08/09/25Championship1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Middlesbrough1384130:1728
2Southampton1383228:1327
3Swansea City1382320:1326
4Wolverhampton1373323:1624
5West Bromwich1373319:1424
6Birmingham City1365223:1323
7Stoke City1372420:1623
8West Ham1364333:1822
9QPR1355321:1620
10Sheffield United1354417:1519
11Portsmouth1354416:1519
12Millwall1353523:2118
13Blackburn Rovers1353519:2018
14Bristol City1353515:1718
15Norwich City1350823:2415
16Lincoln City1343614:2315
17Cardiff City1335519:2014
18Wrexham1335515:1914
19Bolton Wanderers1342718:2614
20Charlton Athletic1335511:2114

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Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.