Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76
No43%
ours 2.32
All matches
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Portsmouth — Swansea City, Championship
England, Championship
Portsmouth
1.4DDWLL
Swansea City
2.0WWLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
39%26%35%
Portsmouth39%Draw26%Swansea City35%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Portsmouth2.59—
XDraw3.79—
2Swansea City2.86—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPortsmouthSwansea CityCombined
Goals scored0.000.330.33
Conceded0.000.170.17
Corners—2.0—
Cards—1.0—
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PortsmouthSwansea City
Portsmouth FC 39%, Swansea City AFC 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Portsmouth FC 39%Draw 26%Swansea City AFC 35%
1st half
35 · 38 · 27
2nd half
31 · 40 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Portsmouth
- homeBlackburn Rovers2:2
- awayCharlton Athletic0:0
- homeCardiff City2:0
- homeDerby County0:2
- awayBristol City1:2
Swansea City
- awayLincoln City2:1
- homeBurnley3:1
- awaySouthampton1:3
- homeWrexham0:0
- homeWatford2:0
Head to head
- 03/10/26Championship1:2
- 12/09/25Championship0:1
- 01/01/25Championship4:0
- 11/30/24Championship2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Swansea City852113:617
Swansea City852113:6172
West Ham843122:1115
West Ham843122:11153
Middlesbrough843116:1215
Middlesbrough843116:12154
Southampton842219:1014
Southampton842219:10145
Wolverhampton742115:1014
Wolverhampton742115:10146
West Bromwich842210:814
West Bromwich842210:8147
QPR834110:713
QPR834110:7138
Stoke City841313:1213
Stoke City841313:12139
Bristol City841311:1213
Bristol City841311:121310
Charlton Athletic83327:1012
Charlton Athletic83327:101211
Birmingham City825112:1111
Birmingham City825112:111112
Millwall832315:1511
Millwall832315:151113
Lincoln City83237:811
Lincoln City83237:81114
Wrexham82429:1210
Wrexham82429:121015
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers831411:151016
Blackburn Rovers823312:129
Blackburn Rovers823312:12917
Norwich City830516:179
Norwich City830516:17918
Sheffield United82339:119
Sheffield United82339:11919Portsmouth72239:108
Portsmouth72239:10820
Watford82247:108
Watford82247:10821
Cardiff City814310:127
Cardiff City814310:127Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.