All matches

Southampton — QPR, Championship

England, Championship

Southampton
1.9LWWDD
—
QPR
1.6DDDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
58%23%19%
Southampton58%Draw23%QPR19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Southampton58%1.73—
XDraw23%4.28—
2QPR19%5.34—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.62

No38%

ours 2.62

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSouthamptonQPRCombined
Goals scored0.830.501.33
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners6.010.58.3
Cards2.03.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

SouthamptonQPR

Southampton FC 58%, Queens Park Rangers FC 19%. The safest is “Southampton FC or draw” at 77%.

Southampton FC 58%Draw 23%Queens Park Rangers FC 19%
1st half
47 · 34 · 20
2nd half
36 · 37 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Southampton

  • awayWrexham1:2
  • homeBristol City4:1
  • homeSwansea City3:1
  • awayLincoln City1:1
  • awayBirmingham City1:1

QPR

  • homePreston2:2
  • awayWest Bromwich1:1
  • awayCharlton Athletic0:0
  • homeMiddlesbrough0:1
  • homeCardiff City2:1

Head to head

  • 02/24/26Championship5:0
  • 11/05/25Championship2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2West Ham843122:1115
3Middlesbrough843116:1215
4Southampton842219:1014
5Wolverhampton742115:1014
6West Bromwich842210:814
7QPR834110:713
8Stoke City841313:1213
9Bristol City841311:1213

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.