Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81
No45%
ours 2.23
All matches
—
Burnley — Portsmouth, Championship
England, Championship
Burnley
1.6DLDLD
Portsmouth
1.4DDWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
55%25%20%
Burnley55%Draw25%Portsmouth20%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Burnley1.82—
XDraw4.00—
2Portsmouth5.02—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBurnleyPortsmouthCombined
Goals scored0.330.330.66
Conceded0.670.331.00
Corners9.516.012.8
Cards2.52.04.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
BurnleyPortsmouth
Burnley FC 55%, Portsmouth FC 20%. The safest is “Burnley FC or draw” at 77%.
Burnley FC 55%Draw 25%Portsmouth FC 20%
1st half
42 · 36 · 22
2nd half
34 · 41 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
67%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Burnley
- homeDerby County1:1
- awaySwansea City1:3
- awayWrexham1:1
- homeBristol City1:2
- homeMiddlesbrough1:1
Portsmouth
- homeBlackburn Rovers2:2
- awayCharlton Athletic0:0
- homeCardiff City2:0
- homeDerby County0:2
- awayBristol City1:2
Head to head
- 02/01/25Championship0:0
- 09/21/24Championship2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
17
Norwich City830516:179
Norwich City830516:17918
Sheffield United82339:119
Sheffield United82339:11919Portsmouth72239:108
Portsmouth72239:10820
Watford82247:108
Watford82247:10821
Cardiff City814310:127
Cardiff City814310:12722
Derby County81257:145
Derby County81257:14523
Preston81168:154
Preston81168:15424Burnley80449:174
Burnley80449:174Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.