Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.77
No43%
ours 2.30
All matches
—
QPR — Burnley, Championship
England, Championship
QPR
1.6DDDLW
Burnley
1.6DLDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
37%26%36%
QPR37%Draw26%Burnley36%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1QPR2.67—
XDraw3.80—
2Burnley2.76—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricQPRBurnleyCombined
Goals scored0.330.170.50
Conceded0.330.170.50
Corners13.010.011.5
Cards2.04.06.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
QPRBurnley
Queens Park Rangers FC 37%, Burnley FC 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Queens Park Rangers FC 37%Draw 26%Burnley FC 36%
1st half
36 · 36 · 27
2nd half
32 · 41 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
QPR
- homePreston2:2
- awayWest Bromwich1:1
- awayCharlton Athletic0:0
- homeMiddlesbrough0:1
- homeCardiff City2:1
Burnley
- homeDerby County1:1
- awaySwansea City1:3
- awayWrexham1:1
- homeBristol City1:2
- homeMiddlesbrough1:1
Head to head
- 04/26/25Championship0:5
- 10/26/24Championship0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
Wolverhampton742115:1014
Wolverhampton742115:10146
West Bromwich842210:814
West Bromwich842210:8147QPR834110:713
QPR834110:7138
Stoke City841313:1213
Stoke City841313:12139
Bristol City841311:1213
Bristol City841311:121310
Charlton Athletic83327:1012
Charlton Athletic83327:101211
Birmingham City825112:1111
Birmingham City825112:111112
Millwall832315:1511
Millwall832315:151113
Lincoln City83237:811
Lincoln City83237:81114
Wrexham82429:1210
Wrexham82429:121015
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers831411:151016
Blackburn Rovers823312:129
Blackburn Rovers823312:12917
Norwich City830516:179
Norwich City830516:17918
Sheffield United82339:119
Sheffield United82339:11919
Portsmouth72239:108
Portsmouth72239:10820
Watford82247:108
Watford82247:10821
Cardiff City814310:127
Cardiff City814310:12722
Derby County81257:145
Derby County81257:14523
Preston81168:154
Preston81168:15424Burnley80449:174
Burnley80449:174Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.