All matches

Middlesbrough — Charlton Athletic, Championship

England, Championship

Middlesbrough
2.3DDWWD
—
Charlton Athletic
1.5LDDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
62%23%15%
Middlesbrough62%Draw23%Charlton Athletic15%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Middlesbrough62%1.60—
XDraw23%4.33—
2Charlton Athletic15%6.85—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.20

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMiddlesbroughCharlton AthleticCombined
Goals scored0.670.170.84
Conceded0.670.501.17
Corners11.59.510.5
Cards0.52.02.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

MiddlesbroughCharlton Athletic

Middlesbrough FC 62%, Charlton Athletic FC 15%. The safest is “Middlesbrough FC or draw” at 87%.

Middlesbrough FC 62%Draw 23%Charlton Athletic FC 15%
1st half
54 · 33 · 13
2nd half
39 · 38 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Middlesbrough

  • awayBirmingham City2:2
  • homeMillwall2:2
  • homeNorwich City4:3
  • awayQPR1:0
  • awayBurnley1:1

Charlton Athletic

  • awayCardiff City1:3
  • homePortsmouth0:0
  • homeQPR0:0
  • awayStoke City0:4
  • awayWest Bromwich1:1

Head to head

  • 03/11/26Championship0:1
  • 12/09/25Championship2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Swansea City852113:617
2West Ham843122:1115
3Middlesbrough843116:1215
4Southampton842219:1014
5Wolverhampton742115:1014
6West Bromwich842210:814
7QPR834110:713
8Stoke City841313:1213
9Bristol City841311:1213
10Charlton Athletic83327:1012
11Birmingham City825112:1111
12Millwall832315:1511

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.