Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.84
No46%
ours 2.19
All matches
—
Watford — Lincoln City, Championship
England, Championship
Watford
1.3LLWLL
Lincoln City
1.9LWWDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
39%27%34%
Watford39%Draw27%Lincoln City34%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Watford2.57—
XDraw3.71—
2Lincoln City2.93—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricWatfordLincoln CityCombined
Goals scored0.000.170.17
Conceded0.170.330.50
Corners7.02.04.5
Cards5.02.07.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
WatfordLincoln City
Watford FC 39%, Lincoln City FC 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Watford FC 39%Draw 27%Lincoln City FC 34%
1st half
32 · 39 · 29
2nd half
33 · 41 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Watford
- awayBristol City0:1
- homeStoke City1:2
- homePreston2:1
- awayWest Bromwich0:1
- awaySwansea City0:2
Lincoln City
- homeSwansea City1:2
- awayBristol City1:0
- awayPreston1:0
- homeSouthampton1:1
- homeBlackburn Rovers0:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11
Birmingham City825112:1111
Birmingham City825112:111112
Millwall832315:1511
Millwall832315:151113Lincoln City83237:811
Lincoln City83237:81114
Wrexham82429:1210
Wrexham82429:121015
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers831411:151016
Blackburn Rovers823312:129
Blackburn Rovers823312:12917
Norwich City830516:179
Norwich City830516:17918
Sheffield United82339:119
Sheffield United82339:11919
Portsmouth72239:108
Portsmouth72239:10820Watford82247:108
Watford82247:10821
Cardiff City814310:127
Cardiff City814310:12722
Derby County81257:145
Derby County81257:145Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.