Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.65
No39%
ours 2.53
All matches
Watford — Middlesbrough, Championship
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
18%22%60%
Watford18%Draw22%Middlesbrough60%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Watford5.56—
XDraw4.60—
2Middlesbrough1.66—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3682 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3671 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3661 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
WatfordMiddlesbrough
Watford FC 18%, Middlesbrough FC 60%. The safest is “Middlesbrough FC or draw” at 82%.
Watford FC 18%Draw 22%Middlesbrough FC 60%
1st half
17 · 32 · 52
2nd half
25 · 32 · 43
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 4.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricWatfordMiddlesbroughCombined
Goals scored0.602.603.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Watford- Worst attack in the league — 10 goals in 12 matches21st place, 11 points
- Most yellow cards in the league — 2.8 per match24 teams in the league
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches11 goals conceded
Middlesbrough- Unbeaten in 10 matches5:1, 2:2, 3:2, 1:0, 2:2
- Unbeaten away in 5 matches5:1, 3:2, 2:2, 1:0, 1:1
- League leaders — 25 points from 12 matches
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Watford
- awayWolverhampton0:1
- homeCharlton Athletic2:0
- awayCardiff City1:5
- homeBurnley0:4
- awayBristol City0:1
Middlesbrough
- awayBolton Wanderers5:1
- homeCardiff City2:2
- awayStoke City3:2
- homeWolverhampton1:0
- awayBirmingham City2:2
Head to head
- 04/25/26Championship1:5
- 11/01/25Championship3:0
- 02/15/25Championship1:0
- 10/05/24Championship2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
England, Championship: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.