Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.82
No45%
ours 2.21
All matches
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Lincoln City — Birmingham City, Championship
England, Championship
Lincoln City
1.9LWWDD
Birmingham City
1.9DWLDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%27%31%
Lincoln City42%Draw27%Birmingham City31%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lincoln City2.38—
XDraw3.73—
2Birmingham City3.21—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLincoln CityBirmingham CityCombined
Goals scored0.330.671.00
Conceded0.330.500.83
Corners9.511.010.3
Cards3.52.56.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Lincoln CityBirmingham City
Lincoln City FC 42%, Birmingham City FC 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Lincoln City FC 42%Draw 27%Birmingham City FC 31%
1st half
37 · 38 · 25
2nd half
28 · 42 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lincoln City
- homeSwansea City1:2
- awayBristol City1:0
- awayPreston1:0
- homeSouthampton1:1
- homeBlackburn Rovers0:0
Birmingham City
- homeMiddlesbrough2:2
- awayDerby County2:1
- awayNorwich City1:2
- homeWolverhampton2:2
- homeSouthampton1:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Bristol City841311:1213
Bristol City841311:121310
Charlton Athletic83327:1012
Charlton Athletic83327:101211Birmingham City825112:1111
Birmingham City825112:111112
Millwall832315:1511
Millwall832315:151113Lincoln City83237:811
Lincoln City83237:81114
Wrexham82429:1210
Wrexham82429:121015
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.