All matches

Norwich City — Watford, Championship

England, Championship

Norwich City
1.7LLWWL
—
Watford
1.3LLWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
57%24%19%
Norwich City57%Draw24%Watford19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Norwich City57%1.76—
XDraw24%4.14—
2Watford19%5.25—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.71

No42%

ours 2.40

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNorwich CityWatfordCombined
Goals scored1.000.171.17
Conceded1.330.501.83
Corners7.010.08.5
Cards0.53.54.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Norwich CityWatford

Norwich City FC 57%, Watford FC 19%. The safest is “Norwich City FC or draw” at 80%.

Norwich City FC 57%Draw 24%Watford FC 19%
1st half
48 · 34 · 19
2nd half
36 · 39 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Norwich City

  • homeBolton Wanderers3:4
  • awayMiddlesbrough3:4
  • homeBirmingham City2:1
  • awaySheffield United3:1
  • awayStoke City0:1

Watford

  • awayBristol City0:1
  • homeStoke City1:2
  • homePreston2:1
  • awayWest Bromwich0:1
  • awaySwansea City0:2

Head to head

  • 12/29/25Championship0:1
  • 12/06/25Championship2:3
  • 02/01/25Championship1:0
  • 09/21/24Championship4:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
15Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
16Blackburn Rovers823312:129
17Norwich City830516:179
18Sheffield United82339:119
19Portsmouth72239:108
20Watford82247:108
21Cardiff City814310:127
22Derby County81257:145

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.