All matches

Queens Park Rangers FC — Swansea City AFC, Championship

England, Championship

Queens Park Rangers FC
1.6DDDLW
—
Swansea City AFC
2.0WWLDW
Outcome probability
342937
Queens Park Rangers FC34%Draw29%Swansea City AFC37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Queens Park Rangers FC34%2.97—
XDraw29%3.46—
2Swansea City AFC37%2.67—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86

No46%

ours 2.16

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricQueens Park Rangers FCSwansea City AFCCombined
Goals scored0.501.001.50
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners12.77.710.2
Cards2.71.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Queens Park Rangers FCSwansea City AFC
    7Table position1
    56.30%Possession58.30%
    7Days of rest7
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Swansea City AFC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Queens Park Rangers FC

  • homePreston North End FC2:2
  • awayWest Bromwich Albion FC1:1
  • awayCharlton Athletic FC0:0
  • homeMiddlesbrough FC0:1
  • homeCardiff City FC2:1

Swansea City AFC

  • awayLincoln City FC2:1
  • homeBurnley FC3:1
  • awaySouthampton FC1:3
  • homeWrexham FC0:0
  • homeWatford FC2:0

Head to head

  • 04/21/26Championship1:2
  • 10/22/25Championship1:0
  • 04/21/25Championship1:2
  • 12/26/24Championship0:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Swansea City AFC852113:617
2West Ham United FC843122:1115
3Middlesbrough FC843116:1215
4Southampton FC842219:1014
5Wolverhampton Wanderers FC742115:1014
6West Bromwich Albion FC842210:814
7Queens Park Rangers FC834110:713
8Stoke City FC841313:1213
9Bristol City FC841311:1213

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.