All matches

Stoke City FC — Bristol City FC, Championship

England, Championship

Stoke City FC
1.3WWDWW
—
Bristol City FC
1.8WLLWW
Outcome probability
372934
Stoke City FC37%Draw29%Bristol City FC34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Stoke City FC37%2.72—
XDraw29%3.43—
2Bristol City FC34%2.94—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.95

No49%

ours 2.05

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricStoke City FCBristol City FCCombined
Goals scored0.830.331.16
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners11.310.310.8
Cards2.72.04.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Stoke City FCBristol City FC
    3Matches in 14 days2
    8Table position9
    50.00%Possession49.30%
    7Days of rest7
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Stoke City FC: a home win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Stoke City FC

  • homeSheffield United FC2:1
  • awayWatford FC2:1
  • awayCardiff City FC1:1
  • homeCharlton Athletic FC4:0
  • homeNorwich City FC1:0

Bristol City FC

  • homeWatford FC1:0
  • homeLincoln City FC0:1
  • awaySouthampton FC1:4
  • awayBurnley FC2:1
  • awayPreston North End FC3:1

Head to head

  • 05/02/26Championship0:2
  • 11/01/25Championship5:1
  • 02/12/25Championship0:2
  • 10/22/24Championship2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6West Bromwich Albion FC842210:814
7Queens Park Rangers FC834110:713
8Stoke City FC841313:1213
9Bristol City FC841311:1213
10Charlton Athletic FC83327:1012
11Birmingham City FC825112:1111

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.