Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76
No43%
ours 2.32
All matches
—
Stoke City — Preston, Championship
England, Championship
Stoke City
1.3WWDWW
Preston
1.2DLLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
49%26%25%
Stoke City49%Draw26%Preston25%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Stoke City2.03—
XDraw3.86—
2Preston4.01—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricStoke CityPrestonCombined
Goals scored0.670.331.00
Conceded0.330.500.83
Corners11.016.013.5
Cards3.01.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Stoke CityPreston
Stoke City FC 49%, Preston North End FC 25%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Stoke City FC 49%Draw 26%Preston North End FC 25%
1st half
41 · 37 · 22
2nd half
33 · 39 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Stoke City
- homeSheffield United2:1
- awayWatford2:1
- awayCardiff City1:1
- homeCharlton Athletic4:0
- homeNorwich City1:0
Preston
- awayQPR2:2
- homeLincoln City0:1
- awayWatford1:2
- homeBlackburn Rovers2:1
- homeBristol City1:3
Head to head
- 03/20/26Championship1:3
- 12/26/25Championship0:0
- 04/05/25Championship1:1
- 11/26/24Championship0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
West Bromwich842210:814
West Bromwich842210:8147
QPR834110:713
QPR834110:7138Stoke City841313:1213
Stoke City841313:12139
Bristol City841311:1213
Bristol City841311:121310
Charlton Athletic83327:1012
Charlton Athletic83327:101211
Birmingham City825112:1111
Birmingham City825112:111112
Millwall832315:1511
Millwall832315:151113
Lincoln City83237:811
Lincoln City83237:81114
Wrexham82429:1210
Wrexham82429:121015
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers831411:151016
Blackburn Rovers823312:129
Blackburn Rovers823312:12917
Norwich City830516:179
Norwich City830516:17918
Sheffield United82339:119
Sheffield United82339:11919
Portsmouth72239:108
Portsmouth72239:10820
Watford82247:108
Watford82247:10821
Cardiff City814310:127
Cardiff City814310:12722
Derby County81257:145
Derby County81257:14523Preston81168:154
Preston81168:15424
Burnley80449:174
Burnley80449:174Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.